Forecast: Monte Carlo Singles Champion 2018 (Update)
- Nadal: 89%
- Nishikori: 11%
Contributing factors: Previous Monte Carlo performances, recent form, H2H, injuries and ranking.
Virtually all the key statistics point towards a Nadal victory: Nadal's record at Monte Carlo, his record on clay, his record in finals, leads their H2H 9-2 and leads their H2H on clay 3-0. Nadal has only ever lost a final on clay to 4 different players: Djokovic, Federer, Murray and Zeballos.
Furthermore, Nishikori has never won a Masters 1000, he hasn't won a title in 2 years, he's never beat a top 10 player in a clay final, he's 1-7 against top 10 players in all finals and he's had a long journey to the final.
The only thing in favour of Nishikori is that a lot of this information was similar before they played their 2014 Madrid final, a match which Nishikori very nearly won. If anything the stats were even more against him before that match because at that point he hadn't beat Nadal.
Did you know? Nishikori has lost 8 semifinals at Masters 1000/Tour Finals, all to either Djokovic or Murray. He has played 4 semifinals against players other than Djokovic or Murray and won all 4.
Did you know? Nadal, A. Zverev and Nishikori all have a better match win % on clay than on hard.
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