Forecast: Lewisham East by-election

Forecast: Lewisham East by-election

A by-election will be held on the 14th of June for the constituency of Lewisham East, following the resignation of Labour MP Heidi Alexander.

Who will win the 2018 Lewisham East by-election?

Labour: 97%

Other: 3%

Contributing Factors

  • Labour have won the last 7 elections in this constituency, most of which have been won by a margin of 20% or greater.
  • Turnout for UK by-elections is typically lower than in general elections, dropping as low as 36% in some recent by-elections (e.g. Ogmore 2016). This favours Labour as the only close contests/Labour losses at this constituency have occurred only when there has been high turnout
  • Incumbent parties tend to hold their seats in by-elections. Since 2010 there have been 32 by-elections, 26 (81%) of which were won by the incumbent party.
  • Of the 6 occasions where by-elections were not won by the incumbent party, 3 of these featured a change of party allegiance of the incumbent MP. 
  • Of the 19 by-elections since 2010 triggered by a resignation, 16 have been won by the incumbent parties
  • In this year's local council elections for Lewisham, Labour won all 54 seats

 

Image: Wereon

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