Forecast: Madrid ATP Singles Champion 2018
- Thiem: 59%
- A. Zverev : 41%
Contributing factors: Previous Madrid performances, finals record, clay record, recent form, H2H and ranking.
The key statistics leading into this match provide a mixed bag. Thiem currently leads their head to head 4-1, including 3-0 on clay and 1-0 in their only previous clay final. However they haven't actually played each other in well over a year, in which time Zverev's results have dramatically improved. Furthermore, none of their previous matches have been straight set wins.
Their win % in finals is both 64%, with Zverev having a 3-1 record in clay finals (that 1 loss was to Thiem) and Thiem having a 7-4 record. Both players also have a 75% match win rate at Madrid, although this is based on a very limited data set.
Zverev has an advantage in that he has won Masters 1000 events before, including beating a top 10 player in a previous final on clay (Rome 2017). Thiem is yet to beat a top 10 player in a clay final, although only 2 of his 11 clay finals were against a top 10 player (both times against Nadal).
Speaking of Nadal, there is a very telling statistic relating to him. Whenever he has lost in a clay masters event before the final, the player that beat him has gone on to win the title only once out of ten times, which strongly disfavours Thiem.
However Thiem's positive head to head record, superior clay match win rate (74% vs 67%), greater top 10 clay wins (9 vs 4) and more clay titles all aid his case.
Qualitative analysis of the two players during the tournament has also been considered.