Forecast: West Tyrone by-election
Which party will win the 2018 West Tyrone by-election?
Sinn Féin: 87%
- A proposed non-partisan candidate is unlikely to run at this point.
- Sinn Féin have won the last 5 elections in this constituency, all by a margin of 10% or greater.
- The only time Sinn Féin have lost this constituency was in 1997 when the constituency was first contested. This election featured a very high turnout (79.2%) and was won by The UUP with a margin of 2.5%.
- Turnout for UK by-elections is typically lower than in general elections, dropping as low as 36% in some recent by-elections (e.g. Ogmore 2016).
- Incumbent parties tend to hold their seats in by-elections. Since 2010 there have been 31 by-elections, 26 (81%) of which were won by the incumbent party.
- Of the 6 occasions where by-elections were not won by the incumbent party, 3 of these featured a change of party allegiance of the incumbent MP.
- Of the 18 by-elections since 2010 triggered by a resignation, 15 have been won by the incumbent parties.
- Since 2010 when an MP has resigned over a scandal, their seat has always been retained by the incumbent party.