Forecast: Year-end Number 1 Men's Singles (Update 4)

Forecast: Year-end Number 1 Men's Singles (Update 4)

This post was updated on 14/06/2018, click here for the previous entry. 


  • Nadal: 34%
  • Federer: 33%
  • Del Potro: 15%
  • Cilic: 10%
  • A. Zverev: 8%

 

Contributing factors: tournament indicators, historical records, form and ranking.


Did you know? Every year when Federer won the Australian Open and Nadal won the French Open has ended with one of these two players as world number 1 (2006, 2007, 2010, 2017). Wimbledon and the US Open was then won by either Federer or Nadal in all of these years. 

Did you know? Since 2003 the year-end number 1 has been one of the French Open semifinalists 87% of the time.

Did you know? Since 2003 the year-end number 1 has been one of the Australian Open semifinalists 80% of the time and one of the quarterfinalists 93% of the time. 

Did you know? Since 1973 no player has finished as year-end number 1 after finishing the previous year outside the top 10.

Did you know? Since 2000 the year-end number 1 started the year by at least reaching the final of the Australian Open or Indian Wells 72% of the time. If we extend that to simply reaching the semifinals of either tournament, it increases to 94%. 

Did you know? Nadal has never retained the year-end number 1 ranking. However in 2013 he became the first player to have finished year-end number 1 after missing a major since John McEnroe in 1984. It should be noted that during and prior the 1980's it was somewhat common for top players to not play the Australian Open.

Did you know? Only twice in the last 15 years has the player with the most ATP points earned from Grand Slams not gone on to finish as year-end number 1. Both times this player was Djokovic (2013 and 2016).

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